Welcome to the Gippsland Times & Maffra Spectator’s live election coverage, with Stefan Bradley and Tom Parry! Refresh this page to see new updates until we decide to call it a night!
10.25pm: And with that, it’s Good Night from the Gippsland Times team. Thank you very much for joining us on our live coverage.
Be sure to read this Tuesday’s issue for a full wrap on the state election results.
10.22pm: Briefly, The Nationals have retained Gippsland South and Gippsland East, with Tim Bull increasing his vote in the latter seat. No surprises in either contest, as both districts are considered safe Nationals territory.
10.20pm: We’re about to call it a night on our state election coverage, but before we do, here’s the state of play in Morwell.
25,241 ballots have been counted, representing 46.9 per cent of the total votes cast in the electorate.
32.8 per cent of primary votes have fallen Kate Maxfield’s way, and 20.4 to Martin Cameron.
The latest two-party preferred figures have Cameron ahead 54.6 per cent against Maxfield’s 45.4
10.15pm: Let’s briefly head back to the Legislative Council race, where 61,989 ballots have been counted, representing 11.35 per cent of total votes.
The Liberal/National quota has fallen slightly, currently sitting at 2.06 but still giving them enough for two seats outright.
Labor is at 1.54, an increase of approximately 0.3 from two hours ago. Next best is the Greens with 0.59.
10.06pm: A huge flow of votes has come through in Gippsland East since we last reported on the seat.
With more than two-thirds of ballots counted, 64.5 per cent of first-preference votes have gone the way of The Nationals’ Tim Bull, and 16.8 per cent to Labor’s Stephen Richardson.
9.52pm – Exclusive: Kate Maxfield has officially conceded the seat of Morwell, handing victory to Martin Cameron and The Nationals.
The Gippsland Times has spoken to Dr Maxfield on her defeat, who said that Labor couldn’t have put up a better campaign.
“We still won government, we’re still going to bring back the SEC,” she said.
“If we had lost government, I’d be in tears now.”
9.38pm: Counting has slowed in the seat of Gippsland East, but signs still point to a Tim Bull victory. 35.8 per cent of ballots have been counted.
Bull has increased his stranglehold on the district, with his primary votes totalling 62 per cent thus far, giving him a whopping 24.8 per cent lead in his two-party preferred race against Labor’s Stephen Richardson.
9.32pm: Nearly two-thirds of the vote has been counted in Gippsland South, where Danny O’Brien is almost certain to win.
The incumbent and Nationals candidate has amassed 55.59 per cent of the primary votes; despite hopes of increasing Labor’s vote, Denise Ryan has slipped with 22.38 per cent of first-preference – a six per cent drop from her result in the 2018 election.
But, The Nationals have partially lost their two-party preferred buffer – 64.7 versus 35.3.
9.30pm: Returning to the count in Morwell now, where 12,442 formal ballots have been counted, representing 23.1 per cent of the 53,782 votes cast.
Labor’s Kate Maxfield is ahead on first preference with 31.27 per cent of the vote, ahead of The Nationals’ Martin Cameron with 21.84; but with a majority of the ten other candidates directing their preferences to Cameron, he is ahead in the two-party preferred count – 53.8 per cent to Maxfield’s 46.2.
9.06pm: Antony Green is now predicting that Labor will retain a majority government, saying “the numbers are adding up for Labor to stay in power”.
In Gippsland South and Gippsland East, the incumbent Nationals MPs – Danny O’Brien and Tim Bull, respectively – are both headed for a return, and a victory still looks likely for Martin Cameron in Morwell.
Elsewhere in the state, The Nationals have won back the seats of Mildura and Shepparton, which were held by independents. All in all, it has been a good night for “The Nats” – but not for their Liberal cousins in the Coalition.
8.44pm: The Liberals are not having a good night. While they have won back the seat of Nepean, there hasn’t been the Blue Wave that some were expecting tonight. Speaking on ABC News, Liberal MLC David Davis says that the preselection of Renee Heath in the upper house may have damaged the party’s chances.
8.40pm: 62.43 per cent of first-preference votes for The Nationals’ Tim Bull in Gippsland East and 16.15 per cent for Labor’s Stephen Richardson. It’s an easy win for Mr Bull.
8.29pm: ABC’s Antony Green says it’s looking unlikely that the Liberal-National coalition will be able to form government, and Labor will remain in power.
Whether this will be in majority or minority government is yet to be seen.
8.25pm: ABC is predicting that The Nationals will win Morwell.
With just over 5,000 ballots counted (or 9.3 per cent of total ballots), Martin Cameron has obtained 23.25 per cent of first-preference votes to Kate Maxfield’s 31.56.
With preferences distributed, The Nationals are ahead of Labor on two-party preferred 54-46.
8:14pm: In Gippsland South, 17.78 per cent of votes have been counted, and The Nationals’ Danny O’Brien is leading Labor’s Denise Ryan on two-party preferred at 65-35, a result near-identical to that of the 2018 state election.
8.12pm: With 19 per cent of ballots counted in Gippsland East, Tim Bull remains comfortably ahead in the two-party preferred race, 75-25 against Labor’s Stephen Richardson.
Labor has only polled 16.36 per cent of first-preference votes.
8.10pm: ABC’s election guru, Antony Green says it’s looking likely that Labor will retain government, but he is not prepared to call a victory for the party just yet. Watch this space!
8.03pm: It’s not just seats in the Lower House that are being decided tonight, as Victorians are also voting for who they want to represent them in the Upper House, or Legislative Council – the state’s equivalent of the Federal Senate.
So far, 2412 formal votes have been counted from 546,000 ballots cast.
Six seats are up for grabs; early numbers suggest that the Liberal/National coalition has obtained two seats, including the incumbent Melina Bath (Nationals) and controversial Liberal candidate Renee Heath.
Labor has garnered at least one seat, which would most likely be given to Tom McIntosh.
8pm: ABC News is predicting that The Nationals have retained both Gippsland South and Gippsland East. Less than 14 per cent of votes have been counted in the two seats.
Morwell is considered too early to call.
7.57pm: The Nationals’ Martin Cameron is ahead (54.79 per cent) in Morwell against Labor’s Kate Maxfield (45.21 per cent) on two-party preferred. It’s going to be a close one, as Dr Maxfield was ahead earlier in the night.
7.48pm: One seat that we know is already changing hands is Nepean. The seat covers the southern parts of the Mornington Peninsula. Labor won the seat in an upset in 2018, but they’ve now lost it to Liberals’ Sam Groth.
7.43pm: There’s been a bit more movement in the seat of Morwell, where Dr Kate Maxfield remains ahead on first-preference with 1585 ballots counted – and 52,000 to come.
Labor has 35.21 per cent of votes, with the next-nearest The Nationals’ Martin Cameron on 18.55 per cent.
It looks as though preferences from the nine other candidates will be key to victory in this race.
7.40pm: The ABC is calling Bendigo East for Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan. If Labor were to lose this election, or even if Daniel Andrews were to lose his seat in Mulgrave, she would probably be the most likely successor.
7.39pm: Another 1,000 or so ballots have been tallied in Gippsland South. Danny O’Brien continues to poll the most first-preference votes (57.58 per cent) with his nearest rival being Labor’s Denise Ryan (21.5 per cent).
2716 ballots have been counted; there are 49,715 registered voters in the seat.
7.37pm: On a two-party preferred, Nationals MP Tim Bull is well ahead in Gippsland East, with 76.60 per cent to Labor’s Stephen Richardson on 23.40 per cent.
7.23pm: 80 minutes after polls closed, we finally have the first results for Morwell.
466 ballots have been counted, and Labor’s Kate Maxfield currently has the most first-preference votes – 36.9 per cent of those returned.
Martin Cameron of The Nationals is next on 14.8 per cent, followed by David Snelling of Shooters, Fishers & Farmers with 11.16 per cent.
Dale Harriman, the Liberal candidate, has only pulled 8.37 per cent thus far, despite being first on the ballot.
7.21pm: Before we see the new parliament, let’s take one last look at the 2018-2022 seat count.
Labor: 55
Coalition: 27 (Liberals 21, Nationals 6)
Greens: 3
Independents: 3
45 seats are needed in the lower house, the Legislative Assembly, for a majority. It’s possible we may see a minority government, but we’ll find out soon enough!
7.12pm: In Gippsland South, Danny O’Brien is still ahead – but his lead has narrowed.
He has accumulated 59.27 per cent of votes from 1198 ballots cast.
7.09pm: Gippsland East is continuing to see results flow through.
With 2667 votes now counted (or 0.053 per cent of the seat), Tim Bull remains ahead on 64.75 per cent first-preference.
Bull drew first place on the Gippsland East ballot; could the Donkey Vote provide a swing toward him?
7.02pm: Things are moving quickly in the Gippsland South, where 463 votes have now been counted.
Danny O’Brien remains ahead on first-preference with 64.36 per cent.
It could be another hour before we get a clear indication of a statewide result.
6.59pm: We have our first results in for the district of Gippsland South!
With 111 ballots counted, incumbent MP and Nationals candidate Danny O’Brien has taken the lead with 61.26 per cent of first-preference votes.
6.56pm: Still no movement in the seats of Gippsland South and Morwell, but results are coming in thick and fast in Gippsland East, where 1017 ballots have been counted.
67.45 per cent of first-preference votes are flowing to Tim Bull, putting him well ahead of his rivals.
6.54pm: In case you’re wondering, we’re relying on the official figures from the Victorian Electoral Commission to bring you tonight’s results.
You can follow these results for yourself here: https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/2022-state-election-results/results-by-district
6.47pm: See what we wrote about the election in yesterday’s issue of the Gippsland Times. How right were we? We’ll find out.
If voters were looking at making a change this Saturday, it’s unlikely to happen in either Gippsland South or Gippsland East.
Both are safe seats held by The Nationals with very large margins.
With the new electoral boundaries, Danny O’Brien holds Gippsland South by an estimated 14.2 per cent, and Tim Bull at an even larger 17.6 per cent in Gippsland East.
Independent Craig Ingram represented Gippsland East from 1999 to 2010, but other than that, both Gippsland East and Gippsland South have been represented by The Nationals for decades. With no ‘teal’ independent challenger, it seems likely that incumbents in both seats will be re-elected handily.
The seat of Morwell is the seat you want to live in if you are looking for an exciting contest.
Read the rest here: https://www.gippslandtimes.com.au/news/2022/11/26/its-your-decision/
6.41pm Our first results are in! 174 votes have been counted in the seat of Gippsland East, giving Nationals candidate and the incumbent member, Tim Bull an early lead – he has garnered 69.54 per cent of first-preference results.
Mind you, this only represents 0.0035 per cent of the ballots cast in the 2022 election, so take these numbers with a hefty grain of salt.
6.30pm: With incumbent MP Russell Northe retiring at this election, Morwell is predicted to be a two-horse race between Nationals candidate Martin Cameron and Labor candidate Dr Kate Maxfield.
Northe was first elected to the state parliament in 2006 as a member of The Nationals, before quitting the party to sit as an independent.
The seat is now notionally Labor, thanks to a redistribution which sees Moe move from the nearby electoral division of Narracan.
Both Gippsland South and Gippsland East are considered safe seats for The Nationals and are not expected to fall at this election.
Read our tips for the seat of Morwell – none of us really agree: https://www.gippslandtimes.com.au/news/2022/11/26/our-tips-for-the-seat-of-morwell/
6.17pm
We’ll be casting our eye over the hotly-contested seat of Morwell throughout the evening, in addition to the neighbouring electorates of Gippsland South and Gippsland East.
The district of Narracan will not be choosing its lower-house member tonight, following the death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist earlier this week. Voters in that seat will cast their ballot at a later date.
To keep up-to-date with the blog, be sure to refresh this page frequently.
6pm
The polls have closed – it is on!
(Technically if anyone just got in line, the polls don’t close until they all vote!)
5.58pm
It’s 5:58pm, and polls are about to close!
