CATHRINE Burnett-Wake, a former upper house MP for Eastern Victoria, has lost pre-selection to contest a by-election for the federal seat of Aston to City of Melbourne Councillor Roshena Campbell.

Ms Burnett-Wake, a migration agent and former Yarra Ranges councillor, was one of three candidates, all women, alongside Cr Campbell and oncologist Ranjana Srivastava.

The seat of Aston, in Melbourne’s east, was vacated by former Coalition cabinet minister Alan Tudge.

There was no rank-and-file vote for the pre-selection.

Federal Opposition leader Peter Dutton took part in the secret ballot, which Cr Campbell won comfortably.

The Age’s Paul Sakkal reported that Cr Campbell received 13 votes, with three each for Ms Burnett-Wake and Ms Srivastava.

Mr Dutton had pushed for a woman to be Mr Tudge’s replacement, after Labor nominated Mary Doyle as the candidate for the seat. Both Cr Campbell and Ms Doyle live outside the electorate; Cr Campbell said she would move into the area if she won the seat, while Ms Doyle said she lived “10 minutes away”.

Ms Doyle was also the Labor candidate for Aston in last year’s federal election, in a result where Mr Tudge defeated her by 52.8 to 47.2 on a two-party-preferred vote. However, there was a 7.3 per cent swing to Labor, turning a once-safe Liberal electorate into a marginal seat.

At the 2019 election, the margin was 10.1 per cent in favour of the Liberals.

The 2.9 per cent swing that Labor needs to win Aston may be within reach, with favourable national polling for the government, but psephologist Kevin Bonham said there has been “no government gains from the opposition in federal by-elections” since 1920.

Ferntree Gully Star Mail reporter Parker McKenzie told the Gippsland Times that “if there was ever a time for Labor to win the seat, it’s now”.

“A lot can happen between now and April 1 and the Liberal Party remains the favourite in this election, but it is possible,” he said.

“The swing to the Labor Party during the 2022 federal election was without a doubt in part due to the performance of the former Coalition government, which will be less of a factor this time around. During the state election, there was a swing towards Labor in key seats that overlap with Aston like Bayswater and Rowville, but it remains to be seen whether that can be replicated during a by-election.

“Mary Doyle’s 2022 election campaign was largely self-funded because there was little belief she could win. The result being close was a shock and Labor has committed to greater funding for the campaign from the start but despite this, they remain the underdog.”

Mr McKenzie said the by-election was about who the voters of Aston wanted to represent them in Parliament, rather than the performance of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese or Mr Dutton.

“Any implication that this election is a referendum on Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton’s ability to lead their party is missing the mark,” he said.

Mr McKenzie added that Liberal members have expressed disappointment about not having a say in the pre-selection process, with the by-election realistically being the first time since 2010 they’ve had the opportunity to choose their candidate. He also said that Cr Campbell would need to work hard to win over the community.

“The reputation that Alan Tudge had with his constituents was that he delivered for the local area. If she is going to overcome concerns about her not being a local to the area, Ms Campbell will have to work hard to win over the community against a candidate who has already been through this process once and achieved results in closing the gap for the Labor Party,” he said.

When Ms Burnett-Wake announced her candidacy, she highlighted her local connections to Aston.

“The Eastern Victoria Region, which I represented in the State Legislative Council, overlaps Aston,” she wrote on Twitter.

“My children are at a local school in Wantirna South and have been for the past 11 years, and they play sports in the community. My business services clients throughout Aston, and it’s where my family shops.”

Ms Burnett-Wake represented Eastern Victoria in state parliament from December 2021 until November 2022.

In a controversial pre-selection in July, Sale’s Renee Heath defeated Ms Burnett-Wake in a close vote.

As the first on the Upper House ticket for the Coalition, Dr Heath was elected easily at the November state election.

Alan Tudge resigned from federal Parliament earlier this month after nearly 13 years as a Liberal MP, citing family and health reasons.

The by-election will take place on April 1.