Inclement weather battered the region last week, with more than 300mm of rainfall inundating parts of Gippsland in the seven days to 9am on Friday, December 1.
Emergency Management Victoria issued initial flood warnings for most Gippsland catchments last Tuesday (November 28) as a low-pressure trough extended across the state, bringing widespread rainfall.
Steady rainfall developed overnight with no ease to the downpour come Wednesday morning.
Shortly before 12.30pm on Wednesday (November 29), the Bureau of Meteorology issued a severe weather warning for Gippsland, cautioning heavy rainfall and possible damaging winds.
“We’re already starting to see rain rates increase through parts of southern Victoria,” senior meteorologist Kevin Parkyn said.
“We’ve seen falls locally as much as 50 to 60 millimetres in the Strzelecki Ranges and through the Gippsland Foothills, but it’s just starting.”
The Bureau of Meteorology forecasted rainfall to intensify into Wednesday night and continue into Thursday, with Gippsland’s 24 to 36-hour rainfall expected to exceed 100 millimetres.
“Where we do see this intense rainfall, particularly through the Gippsland catchments, it will result in flooding,” Mr Parkyn said.
“We think a lot of the rivers will end up with minor to moderate flooding, but depending on the rainfall we see on Thursday, there’s certainly the potential for some of our river systems to trigger into major (flooding).”
Heavy rainfall continued to batter the region throughout Wednesday afternoon, with Emergency Management Victoria upgrading several flood warnings on Wednesday evening.
A moderate flood warning for the Thomson River and a minor flood warning for the Macalister River were among the flood warning upgrades.
Thursday morning brought a temporary respite from the rain for some parts of the region, but the reprieve was short-lived as showers continued across Gippsland throughout the afternoon.
Major flood warnings were issued for the Buchan River and Thomson River by Thursday evening, along with a moderate flood warning for the Macalister River.
A moderate flood warning was issued for the Avon River shortly after midnight and was later upgraded to a major flood warning just before 6am on Friday.
“Major flooding is occurring along the Avon River,” the emergency warning read.
“The Avon River at Stratford may peak around 7.40 metres late Friday morning.”
By 9am, a swollen Avon River had breached its embankment near the Avon Bridge, with the lower grounds of Stratford on the River Tourist Park among the areas inundated with water.
Stratford on the River Tourist Park owner Louise Perrett is well-versed in handling floods, having waded through several since assuming ownership in 2004.
“I’m just watching everything: the Vic Emergency app, the Bureau of Meteorology website, all of that,” Ms Perrett said.
“I’ve just emptied that back area [down near the river], and then we’ll wait and see, but from what they’re predicting, I think we’ll be right.”
With water inundating the grounds along the banks of the Avon River and emergency services continuing to closely monitor the situation with more rain forecasted over the weekend, Ms Perrett’s business has taken a hit.
“I’ve turned away people wanting to make side bookings this weekend, and I’ve been ringing people who’ve got cabin bookings,” she said.
“It might hurt your cash flow, but the safety of people always comes first; that’s our main priority.”
The state emergency service reported the Avon River at Stratford peaked at 7.26 metres about 8.30am Friday, with the swollen waterway receding throughout the morning, dropping to 7.14 metres just before 1pm.
Emergency Management Victoria reissued the major flood warning for the Avon River at 12.48pm as forecast rainfall for the remainder of Friday and into the weekend retained the potential for renewed river level rises.
While Stratford residents breathed a sigh of relief, those residing near the Macalister River, Thomson River and Buchan River remained on high alert, with major and moderate flood warnings issued just before noon.
Emergency Management Victoria issued a major flood warning for the Thomson River from Cowwarr Weir to Wandocka at 11.29am Friday. At the same time, moderate flood warnings were issued for the Macalister River downstream of Lake Glenmaggie, the Thomson River downstream of Wandocka and the Buchan River.
Rainfall eased overnight, with Briagolong recording 8.8 millimetres of rain in the 24 hours to 9am Saturday. Murderers Hill recorded 32.2 millimetres, Avon River at the channel 14.4 millimetres, Stratford 7.4 millimetres, Glenmaggie Weir 21.2 millimetres and East Sale Airport 4.8 millimetres.
Just before 10.30am Saturday, the state emergency service issued a major flood warning for the Thomson River from Cowwarr Weir to Wandocka.
“Rainfall during the week across the Thomson River catchment has caused minor to major flooding along the Thomson River,” the emergency warning read.
“The main flood peak is now at Sale Wharf, where river levels are steady above the moderate flood level.
“Further rainfall totals from around 30 to 50 millimetres are forecast across the Thomson River catchment during Saturday into Sunday, which may cause renewed river level rises and prolonged flooding.”
The flood warning for the Thomson River from Cowwarr Weir to Wandocka was downgraded to moderate just before 4.30pm. At the same time, a moderate flood warning was reissued for the Thomson River downstream of Wandocka.
“The Thomson River at Sale Wharf peaked at 3.86 metres around 7am Saturday morning, just below the major flood level (4m),” the emergency warning read.
“The river is currently at 3.75 metres and falling slowly, with moderate flooding.
“Renewed rises are currently not expected along the Thomson River at Sale Wharf, but prolonged moderate flooding is possible with forecast rainfall.
“The river is likely to remain above the moderate flood level (3m) through to early next week.”
Emergency Management Victoria issued a moderate flood warning for the Macalister River downstream of Lake Glenmaggie at 5.48pm Saturday.
“Moderate flooding is occurring downstream of Lake Glenmaggie with current dam releases,” the emergency warning read.
“The Macalister River downstream of Lake Glenmaggie is currently at 4.72 metres and rising, with moderate flooding.
“The Macalister River downstream of Lake Glenmaggie is likely to remain above the moderate flood level (4.3m) during the remainder of Saturday and into Sunday.”
In the 24 hours to 9am Sunday, Glenmaggie Weir received 25.2 millimetres of rainfall, with East Sale Airport recording 5.4mml, Briagolong 38.0mml and Stratford 5.8mml.
Moderate flood warnings remained in place for the Thomson River on Sunday morning, with moderate flooding at Wandocka and Sale Wharf.
Emergency Management Victoria issued a moderate flood warning for the Thomson River downstream of Wandocka just before 11.30am on Monday. At the same time, flood warnings were downgraded to minor for the Thomson River Cowwarr Weir to Wandocka and Macalister River downstream of Lake Glenmaggie.
The state emergency service received 73 assistance requests in the 24 hours to 8am on Monday.
Conditions have eased across Gippsland, but the rain isn’t over yet, with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting more rainfall in the coming days.
There is a medium chance of showers across the Wellington Shire on Thursday, a very high chance of showers and a thunderstorm on Friday, and a high chance of showers across the weekend.
