Tom Hayes
ONE week remains before the North Gippsland Football-Netball League transition into finals, and to make things more interesting, there will be some twists and turns in the final weekend of the home-and-away season.
With the minor premiership already sewn up to Traralgon Tyers United, and second place in the hands of Woodside; the other three finals positions are still yet to be determined, including the all-important double chance.
The way things have played out this season, the upcoming fixtures may be predictable, giving us a good look at what the finals picture will look like.
THE minor premier hosts Churchill, in a game that is make-or-break for the Cougars.
TTU just about have nothing on the line, with the fact they may want to just get minutes into their players before their week one bye in finals.
Also on the line for the Bombers is a chance to complete a home-and-away season unbeaten, an impressive feat considering the number of list changes from 2022 to 2023.
If TTU do complete an 18-0 season, they will be the first team to do so since Heyfield in 2014.
We all know how that turned out for Heyfield though, defeating Churchill in a semi-final, only to lose to the same team by 51 points in the Grand Final two weeks later.
On the other hand, the result of this game for Churchill could determine whether they finish with a double chance, or finish fifth.
A win, and the Cougars will leapfrog Yallourn Yallourn North, as well as stay above Heyfield on percentage – no matter their result.
A loss, and Churchill will stay below YYN, and they should be leapfrogged by the Kangaroos who face lowly Cowwarr.
The Cougars will be without key forward Chris Wangman who received a two-match ban for umpire dissent last weekend, a decision questioned considering other players have received similar-length bans, or nothing for far worse offences.
Assuming that Heyfield defeating Cowwarr is all but certain, this match will shape the NGFNL finals structure.
Churchill were agonisingly close to securing third place last week, yet lost to YYN by three points in the final minute of the game, and are now on the edge of being the last seeded team in finals.
TTU can add another blow to the Cougar train by making them miss the double chance and force them to presumably face YYN again – a team that knows they can beat them.
Could we see another nail-biter?
Churchill will literally have to put everything on the line in order to secure that double chance, and if they can implement a similar game-winning style they were able to show in the earlier parts of the season, they’re always a chance.
When these sides last faced however, it was a rout at Gaskin Park.
The Bombers were able to keep Churchill to just 4.6 (30) on their home deck, winning by 63 points.
HEYFIELD must beat Cowwarr to keep their top three chances alive.
If the Kangaroos are able to beat the Saints, they will be reasonably confident they have secured the double chance.
Knowing the strength of an unbeaten TTU side, they will be rooting for the Bombers to get the job done over Churchill, no doubt.
Heyfield has been one of the climbers of the season, coming from outside of the top five, only recently sitting in a finals position in the last month or so, at Yarram’s expense.
They will undoubtedly be confident going into this one, knowing they can deal big blows to teams in the bottom half of the ladder.
Again in Round 7, when these two went into battle last, Heyfield made a mockery of Cowwarr, winning by 143 points at home – the start of their surge up the ladder.
Cowwarr’s only two wins this season have come against last-placed Gormandale, so it would be out of this world for them to knock off a premiership contender preparing for a finals campaign.
Based on recent form and the fixtures of this round, it is more likely for Heyfield to jump up into third by 5.30pm tomorrow, than Churchill.
SALE CITY host Rosedale in a game with limited meaning.
Despite sitting next to one another on the ladder, even if eighth-placed Rosedale manages to topple seventh-placed Sale City, no changes will be made on the ladder.
The Blues sit six points below the Bulldogs, but 12 points ahead of Cowwarr, while Sale City are just four points behind Yarram but have a percentage deficit of more than 30.
Sale City easily accounted for Rosedale earlier this season, defeating the Blues by 36 points on their home deck.
If Sale City can put their fast starts to use and get Rosedale in the dumps early they should be able to dispose of the Blues.
The Bulldogs will also be confident after a morale-boosting win over Yarram last weekend, and has extra incentive to win for outgoing coach Nathan Thomas, as well as milestone men Daniel Bird and Tom Bowman.
But the Blues have shown resilience as the season progresses and can be difficult to put away against mid-table sides.
If you’ve got no interest in the finals race (which you should), this could be an entertaining game to watch.
WOODSIDE finish their finals preparation against rivals Yarram.
The Demons had their finals hopes ripped away from them last week at the hands of Sale City.
Yarram will want to finish the year on a high, but that will prove to be difficult when they make the shortest trip on their calendar to Woodside.
Woodside has already locked in a qualifying final and will want to get some run in the legs of their players before beginning their finals campaign.
The Wildcats made light work of the Demons in Round 7 this year, winning by 59 points, at a point of the season when they looked to be at their best.
Depending on how they line up, Woodside should finish their season on a high, with bigger fish to fry in the coming weeks.
CAN Gormandale get on the board?
Literally, their last chance is tomorrow, and some might say it is possible against 10th-placed Glengarry.
The Magpies only two wins of the season were back-to-back ones in Rounds 7 and 8, defeating Gormandale, then Cowwarr.
Despite sitting 10th, Glengarry has appeared much more competitive than their position suggest, they just have been equally disappointing against teams around them on the ladder, as they have been impressive against teams near the top.
Gormandale just haven’t looked close.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, they have led in multiple game but have been unable to complete a four-quarter performance and get over the line.
They could put Glengarry to the test, which will be something to see, so don’t discount a tenacious Tiger start.
Glengarry will want to win to get out of 10th and into ninth, assuming that Cowwarr drop points and lose to Heyfield.
FINALS WEEK 1 PREDICTION
Qualifying Final: Woodside v Heyfield (second v third)
Elimination Final: YYN v Churchill (fourth v fifth)
Bye: TTU (first)
