Tom Hayes
THE end is near.
So near that the top five could be decided by the end of the weekend in North Gippsland football.
With six teams still in the hunt for finals, one Round 17 fixture is set to determine whether we will know who is playing finals by Saturday evening, or if another round of results will decide things.
Elsewhere, results will essentially sort themselves out, with one other fixture presenting a slight threat to a finals fancy.
IT all comes down to fifth versus sixth.
Only one of these two teams will play finals, and it could come down to this very battle at Yarram Recreation Reserve.
Yarram host Sale City in what has developed into a do-or-die clash for the hosts.
For the Bulldogs, they have the upper hand, and defeat doesn’t necessarily mean much to them as they will remain in fifth on percentage.
But the mounting pressure of defeat will bring the finals race down to the last home-and-away round.
However, if Sale City can win on the road, they will go two games clear of Yarram and cement themselves in the top five a week before the home-and-away season finishes.
Purely on form, Sale City are favourites, even on the road.
Yarram have only beaten sides outside the top five in the second half of the season, with their smallest loss to a top five-team in the second half of the season being 64 points to Heyfield in Round 15.
The Demons were well and truly within the finals race thanks to their showing in the first half of the season, sitting within the top four during that period. But things have taken a turn for the worst as the season progressed.
Perhaps it’s a draw thing, but Sale City oppositely have only faced two top fives sides in the second half of the season. They lost to the Yallourn Yallourn North by three goals, but then beat then-top-of-the-table Woodside by 27 points – the start of their ascendancy up the ladder.
This fixture does present itself as an uphill battle for the Demons. The odds are now stacked against them and unfortunately for them, even if they do win, finals remain unlikely.
A win for Yarram brings them level on points with Sale City, but they’ll trail in the percentage department by quite a margin. Next week, Yarram plays top-four side YYN, while the Bulldogs play Gormandale. You could guess who wins those games, or at least the latter.
But with it all to play for, strange things can happen.
At home, Yarram have played better football, they will be looking to keep their season alive at the bare minimum, and there’s only one way to do it.
The Bulldogs have a chance to give themselves a less anxious entry into finals, and winning is the answer to that.
DESPITE sitting second on the ladder, Woodside need to win.
The Wildcats host Rosedale, in what appears to be a game that they’d usually win with ease.
With two games to go in the home-and-away season, Woodside still haven’t mathematically locked in the double chance. Although it appears likely they will finish second, it isn’t set in stone.
The Wildcats can change all of that with a win at home tomorrow.
It is expected they will win at this stage, especially against a team that has no chance of making finals.
Rosedale sit in seventh spot. They have their final bye in the last round of the season, meaning this road trip to Woodside is their final game of the year.
The Blues have nothing on the line except pride and finishing on a high note. Despite the result, the season has not been all bad for Rosedale.
If they can cause one of the upsets of the season, there is a slim chance Woodside’s second spot may remain in jeopardy.
Realistically speaking, Woodside should win. And in doing so, they will lock in a second-placed finish and a double chance berth to play against Heyfield or YYN in the first weekend of finals.
Woodside defeated Rosedale by 78 points last time out. If they want to ensure a good run going into finals, they will want to replicate that win, or better.
SPECTATORS might only just expect one thing in Tyers this weekend.
Top-of-the-ladder Traralgon Tyers United host bottom-of-the-ladder Gormandale, and there really only will be one result.
Since the North Gippsland Football-Netball League resumed in 2021 after COVID-19, TTU have beaten Gormandale by margins of 199 points, 221, 189, 191, and 205 points earlier this season – an average of 201 points in the last four seasons.
You could probably expect much of the same this time around.
Gormandale are staring down the barrel of one of their worst season’s in recent NGFNL history, and TTU look in just as good form as they did in their undefeated season last year.
Unless the Bombers decide to rest the brunt of their players before finals to eliminate any risk of injury, this is going to be a blow out.
TTU will win. TTU will be one step closer to the minor premiership. And TTU will still be the frontrunner for the flag after the weekend’s games.
THE Jets can’t let third place slip.
Last weekend, YYN dropped to fourth on the ladder after Heyfield surpassed them on percentage.
The Kangaroos have the bye this week, meaning if YYN can win, they will jump back into third with one game to play.
Churchill have the chance to be the villains.
Last time these sides played in Yallourn North, the Jets got home by 25 points, but it wasn’t without a fight either.
The Cougars, although their season is over, will want to win no matter what.
If Churchill can win at home, Heyfield will remain in third with a game to play. The opposite result puts YYN back in the double chance spots.
In the grand scheme of things, YYN will most likely get another shot at third place if they miss out this week, due to the fact Heyfield play the league-leading TTU the following week, while the Jets take on Yarram.
Churchill put finals-hopeful Sale City to the test last week, with the Bulldogs only got away in the last quarter.
If the Cougars can get some numbers back, the fact of them beating YYN won’t be too far outside the realm of possibility.
But as things stand, all signs point to YYN getting back on top of Heyfield.
The Jets have looked good in firming their double chance place on the ladder, and won’t be letting it slip to a side no longer in contention.
THE game between Cowwarr and Glengarry will decide who finishes ninth and 10th on the ladder.
Assuming both sides have little chance against their opponents next week (Cowwarr v Churchill, Glengarry v Woodside) this game fronts as the last chance in 2024 that either of these sides can pick up a win.
Both the Saints and Magpies are locked on two wins each for the season. Both of Glengarry’s wins came against Gormandale, while Cowwarr won a game each against Glengarry and Gormandale.
In their last battle, Cowwarr came out on top by just 17 points in Round 6. Three rounds later they won their last game of the season so far.
While Glengarry have achieved a win more recently (Round 12 over Gormandale), it will produce an interesting game this weekend.
The Saints have appeared as the better team all year, perhaps closer to winning some games, and have a better percentage than the Magpies.
But this game could be close enough to say that it is 50/50.
If Glengarry wins, they will climb to 12 points, and put themselves in pole position to finish in ninth spot. If it’s a draw, or Cowwarr win, things will remain the same.
Although it’s nothing major in the grand scheme, it’s the small wins that count.
HEYFIELD has the bye.
